Author Archives: DANTH

CLOSE, BUT NO CIGAR: DOWNTOWN MERCHANTS AND CAPTIVE/DAYTIME MARKETS

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The Problem. Downtown economic development 101 long has taught that one of the strongest competitive advantages of downtowns is their multi-functionality, which leads to a number of “captive” daytime market segments, and stimulates multi-purpose and multi-destination downtown trips. These market segments –e.g., workers, students, hotel guests, etc., — are coming to the downtown continually, so merchants do not have to do anything to attract them to their commercial district. It also has long been thought that the merchants could then just concentrate on getting them into their stores and selling to them. Yet, in almost every community DANTH, Inc. has worked in or pitched a proposal to, local retailers were not capturing the sales dollars they should from nearby office workers, hospital workers and visitors, students, hotel guests, etc. Based on my conversations with other consultants and many district managers this problem is fairly widespread…and possibly, even probably the norm.

Lack of Market Segment Awareness and Knowledge.  Many of downtown merchants simply lack an awareness of these captive consumer markets or know very much that is useful about them. For example, one eye opening presentation at the recent conference of the Wisconsin Downtown Action Council reported on research by Bill Ryan and Jangik Jin at the University of Wisconsin Extension that indicates important captive daytime markets are not limited to large cities, as often supposed, but can be found in communities with populations as small as 2,500:

“Overall, approximately one in five Wisconsin jobs are affiliated with businesses that are located downtown.  A very small city with a population of 2,500 will, on the average, have close to 1,000 employees within a half-mile (a 10 minute walk) of the middle of downtown.  A larger city with a population of 50,000 will, on the average, have over 5,000 employees.  These figures indicate that there is a high density of employment in these small geographic downtown areas.  Clearly not all are employed in the shops that line Main Street.  Instead, they are employed is a diverse mix of businesses and organizations within and around the retail core.”[i]

While the Ryan-Jin study just focused on towns in Wisconsin, the picture it paints seems to fit the other states I have lived and/or worked in. Consequently, I bet that if similar studies were done in other states, they would reveal some variation, but substantially comparable results.

The audience’s reaction indicated that they were certainly learning something new and I doubt if nationally many downtown merchants in small (or large) communities know how many people are employed nearby. The Ryan-Jin study is also unique because its focus is on “employment” and not just office workers, white-collar workers, knowledge workers or creative types. They include the blue collar and uniformed workers that I have seldom seen targeted by downtown revitalization plans, but who account for most employees in a whole host of small and medium-sized downtowns.

In many other downtowns we have worked in, neither the downtown organization or their local merchants knew how many office workers were nearby and how they were clustered. Nor did they know much about office worker consumer behaviors, e.g., how often and when they shop, what they shop for. Much the same is true for the student and hotel guest market segments and certainly true for blue collar workers.

Poor merchant awareness and knowledge constrains their ability to target these potential shoppers, to merchandise for them and then market effectively to them.

The Weak Magnetism of Many Retail and Food-Related Destinations. Unsurprisingly, the ICSC’s studies of downtown office workers have shown that office workers will spend more in districts that have strong retail offerings than in districts having fewer shops and less desirable merchandise. These findings also speak to a more general principle, the stronger the magnetism of the retail destination and eateries, the more likely they are to get shoppers to:

  • Go out of their offices, hotels, schools, etc.
  • Walk longer distances.
  • Shop at inconvenient times.
  • Frequent their establishments.

Retailers are clearly unlikely to have much magnetism  if they:

  • Provide customesr with an unappealing in-store experience.
  • Have lackluster product assortments and/or unattractive store environments.
  • Offer poor customer service.

Unfortunately, a lot of downtown retailers fall into the low magnetism category. Great proximity and consumer desperation may produce sales, but for them meaningful penetration of these captive market segments is unlikely unless they significantly improve their merchandise, store appearance and operating procedures. In my experience some non-magnetic merchants may be capable of making such improvements, most are not.

It’s Often Tough to Access These Market Segments: Just because these potential customers are downtown does not mean that they are within easy walking distances of retailers. For example, retailers that are farther than a 5-minute walk from office workers and 10- minutes from hotel guests are unlikely to gain a lot of their patronage. This is a very likely problem in dispersed downtowns, especially those that are composed of several nodes, not just a central core. One downtown that we recently looked at had four of these nodes, another had three.

Commuting students, who often have jobs or heavy household responsibilities, are typically difficult for merchants to capture. Their time pressures, frequent after 5:00 p.m. class hours and campus locations distant from the downtown core makes it very hard to grab their attention and dollars. The retailer must be very close and really have what the student needs.

Today, many companies try to keep their workers from leaving their office buildings during the workday. As inducements, they provide cafeterias, subsidized meals and concierge services to do their shopping and errands for them. Some just keep the workload pressures so heavy that going out seems impractical.

As Ryan and Jin noted, blue collar workers typically are not on the primary downtown streets, but in more secondary and peripheral locations. Their lunch hours may be brief and they tend toward not leaving their workplaces. Many will brown bag or be serviced by a “food truck” or “ordered in” food.

Downtown retailers must be open when hotel guests are prone to shop in their stores and these opportunity windows can vary with the downtown:

  • In Morristown, NJ a huge number of hotel guests are attending conferences that normally “set them free” after 5:00 p.m. By 5:15 or 5:30 they may be outside looking for things to do, including shopping. That does not give them much time to get to and shop in the stores that close at 6:00 p.m.
  • The skiers staying in hotels near downtown in Rutland, VT will be on the slopes all day and available for dining and shopping late in the day and early evening. But, if the shops are not open….
  • In Long Island City, NY, the guests at the new cluster of hotels are primarily tourists who will spend much of the day and substantial portions of the evening in Manhattan. As a result, the best time for local merchants to capture their dollars may be in the morning.

The Retailers’ Expectation That Customers Come to Them. The problems of accessing these market segments potentially can be overcome, but that will require merchants to implement targeted operating procedures such as altering store hours or, most importantly, reaching out and interacting in some way with these potential shoppers in their offices, schools, hotels, factories, etc.

Unfortunately, many of today’s merchants have been acculturated to expect that their customers will come to them.

Overcoming This Impasse. Merchants can have vastly greater success with these captive daytime downtown market segments if they adopt the multichannel techniques that are detailed in my recent DANTH Research Paper which is available at no cost at:http://danth.com/storage/pdf/Multichannel.pdf .

I do not want to again go over here the ideas presented in that paper, save for this: the key change is that a real multichannel strategy guides and enables downtown merchants to interact with customers away from the brick and mortar stores. If they are to win more sales dollars from their district’s captive markets, that is precisely what they have to do.

 

[i] Bill Ryan and Jangik Jin,  “Employment in Small City Downtowns,” Downtown Economics, Issue 174, October 2011  http://bit.ly/y1bkc2

 

 

Update on the Reassessment of Our Use of Social Media

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I am now on LinkedIn and, as I suspected, I can see its utility and regret not having signed up before. But, it takes quite a bit of time to figure out what your profile should look like and then make it so. Next on my agenda is to figure out which groups to join and how my participation in them can benefit DANTH,Inc and still be fun for me.


Ben Burgess, of the NorthStar Group in Annapolis, MD, is leading us through our reassessment and he quickly suggested that I get on Twitter. This astonished me because, of all the social media, I held Twitter in the lowest esteem and saw little likelihood of ever using it. Perhaps, that was because, in my curmudgeonly way, I saw tweets as being constant electronic intrusions sent by total narcissists who thought that the the world’s population had an abiding interest in where they were, who they were with, and every single thing they did (including their body functions). However, Ben pointed out that my view of tweeting was somewhat jaundiced, and that it could be a much easier and effective way for me to leverage something that I have habitually done for years.

I do a lot of research on the Internet and almost daily come across a piece of information or an article that I want to share with people I know and/or work with. This behavior feels like a natural  way of sharing with them, but it is also a good marketing tool that can maintain and build key professional (and personal) relationships. Ben convinced me to also send these articles out via Twitter. Let’s see how many followers I attract by June 1st.

I signed up to follow Richard Florida on Twitter. Always an interesting guy. But, he tweets so often that I expect his thumbs may have shriveled from so much use on his smartphone’s keyboard. I’ll never tweet as often as he does. Nor do I want to.

Next week we will be looking into Facebook and YouTube. I actually have been wanting to use YouTube for several years. I always take photos of downtowns when I do my consulting assignments and when we just travel because I find them invaluable tools in my work. But, ever since Flip, the small pocketable camcorder, appeared on the market, I have wanted to start using short movies instead of the still photos. The movies can capture the essential dynamic qualities of a downtown that the simple photo usually cannot — at least, in my hands. Moviemaking, takes time to learn and I felt I lacked the needed time. But, I am probably wrong about that, too — I see teenagers and even my 7-year old grandson making short movies on their cameras.

Facebook, is another story of me feeling uneasy. I see it as requiring duplication of the work I put into our website and my blog, while having enormous privacy problems. Let’s see whether this old curmudgeon can learn new tricks about it, too.



  

DANTH Is Reassessing Its Use of Social Media

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The Downtown Curmudgeon works for DANTH, Inc and since I recently have been arguing that downtown small business operators need to learn how to use and benefit from the “social media,” it seemed appropriate that we should take another look at Facebook, Twitter, Linkedin, YouTube , etc. Other small business operators might be interested in our experience, so I plan on doing a few postings on it.


We also will assess moving this blog from blogspot and integrating it into our website, www.ndavidmilder.com. 


I found this brief article — http://usat.ly/wpZY5h —  full of good advice about how small businesses should use the social media. Content, it argues, is critical. Thanks to Phil Burgess for sending it to me.

Office Development — We now have all the office space we need

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For several years now, I have been arguing that a New Normal has emerged for our downtowns and that the business operators, landlords, developers and district leaders who do not recognize that they must adapt to that fact are likely to face severe economic losses. My recently reported research on multichannel retailing (see my last blog posting below) combined with some some recent news items about movie attendance, housing and office development have strongly confirmed my argument.  This posting will focus on office development.

For much of the 1970s and 1980s office development was seen as the economic engine that would drive downtown revitalization in such major cities as Richmond VA, Charlotte NC, Cleveland OH, Philadelphia PA, Seattle WA. Los Angeles CA, etc. Office development primed revitalization efforts were also mounted in smaller cities such as  New Brunswick NJ,  (population 55,181) and White Plains NY  (population 56,853) and in suburban communities such as Morristown NJ (population 18,457), and Garden City NY (population 22,371). 

Many of these office driven revitalization efforts failed to achieve their goals and the downtowns had to add residential, retail and entertainment components to their revitalization strategies. Nevertheless, office development has remained a critical revitalization asset for many downtowns.

A recent article in  CoStar’s e-newsletter reported on the major findings of a symposium of office development experts convened by BOMA. A summary of their findings should put downtown leaders on notice:

“We already have all the office space we likely will need…. But to remain competitive, the existing stock of commercial real estate must be reconfigured to keep pace with an increasingly mobile, Internet-connected workforce; ongoing changes in technology, and to support the way companies are structuring their staffs to foster more collaboration and efficiency, while also addressing the values and attitudes of new generations of workers.”


 Increased telecommuting, flexible work schedules, the untethering of workers from desks to enhance collaboration and increase face-a-face client contacts have combined to increase employee density in major office buildings and reduce the demand for office space. For today’s office worker, according to one of these experts, the ideal situation may be:

(W)here you go into the office two or three days per week and work remotely the other days, which reduces our carbon footprint by 20% – 40% and has a huge impact on improved quality of life.”


 The potential negative impacts of the New Normal’s static demand for office space are:

    • Fewer new downtown office buildings will be built

 

  • Existing downtown office buildings that are not configured to meet the new work habits of office workers will have languishing leasing efforts. A lot of existing downtown office buildings may have to be renovated if they are to be competitive
  • Downtown retailers and eateries will have a significantly reduced office worker market because the telecommuters and flex-timers will spend much less time in the district.

 

 

Of course, downtowns also too often suffer from the fact that major office tenants provide incentives (cafeterias, subsidized meals and concierge services) and work pressures to keep their employees from leaving the building at lunchtime. Furthermore, the retailing many downtowns is often too weak to motivate substantial office worker patronage.

 But, there is a potential upside for downtowns that can provide a dynamic, experience-rich environment. As the CoStar article notes:
 

“The lesson for companies (and the investors and building owners who want to have them as tenants) is that younger workers prefer to work in a more dynamic, experience-rich environment, such as an urban- type setting offering different entertainment, cultural and transportation options.”


 Dynamic downtowns will consequently continue to have a distinct advantage in a highly competitive office market, while listless downtowns will probably be weaker competitors than ever.

The CoStar article can be found at:http://www.costar.com/News/Article/Will-We-Need-Any-More-Office-Space-/134483?ref=100&iid=261&cid=DC6077B43E67ACADB224FF6D0AF89AB6

N. David Milder 011312

Downtown Multichannel Retailing

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DANTH, Inc. has just released a research paper I wrote on downtown multichannel retailing.  I prefer to think of it as backdoor retailing, with electronic and non-electronic variations. In any case, the topic is important because downtown retailing is undergoing an enormous change — one that will not be reversed even when the economy recovers from our Great Recession — towards multichannel/backdoor retailing. Downtown merchants and leaders who do not adapt to this new paradigm will be left behind, more dross produced by capitalism’s creative destruction.


You can download a free copy of the research paper at: 
http://danth.com/storage/pdf/Multichannel.pdf

N. David Milder